Nice Chart of Climate Change

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This is a plot of the global mean temperature anomaly over the last 14 years.  That is the metric that is usually bandied about in reports and the news when people say the Earth is warming.  As you can see, over the last 14 years or so, the trend has been pretty much flat. 

Nobody disputes the trend:  the people who believe that the planet is heating up say it is a temporary halt in the inevitable rise of temperature;  people who are unconvinced by the IPCC and all the models say it is not what is predicted by the first group, so why should their claims about the ‘mechanisms’ of climate change be deemed credible?  I mean, if you  make a prediction, and you’re wrong… that’s not a good thing for your hypothesis.

Nothing here is definitive, but it does make one wonder about the confidence some people have in their computer models.  It is also worth considering why this chart, and again, it is not disputed by anyone, isn’t talked about more widely.  Unless you are convinced that you already know what’s going on, this would be a significant piece of evidence.

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2 Responses to Nice Chart of Climate Change

  1. ryviewpoint says:

    Computer modeling is very tricky. The hubris of the climatologists who claim to have nailed “the climate” and can accurately predict 50 years, 100 years, etc. into the future is breathtaking.

    With computer modeling you have two fundamental tasks: model validation and model verification.

    from: http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/simulation/sim.htm

    In general, verification focuses on the internal consistency of a model, while validation is concerned with the correspondence between the model and the reality. The term validation is applied to those processes which seek to determine whether or not a simulation is correct with respect to the “real” system. More prosaically, validation is concerned with the question “Are we building the right system?”. Verification, on the other hand, seeks to answer the question “Are we building the system right?” Verification checks that the implementation of the simulation model (program) corresponds to the model. Validation checks that the model corresponds to reality. Calibration checks that the data generated by the simulation matches real (observed) data.

    I’ve seen nothing that convinces me that the climate modelers have adequately done either of these tasks.

    Validation for climate modeling is especially tricky because the number of relevant variable to model are quite large and are non-linear. Simplistic linear models touted by scaremongers equate rising CO2 with rising global temperatures. In theory validation can be successfully completed since it is the translation of “the relevant” mathematical equations into a program. But the fight is over what is relevant and even the appropriate equations.

    Verification is even more tricky. Climate is a one time thing. You can’t rewind, tweak a variable, then run the test a second time to check your model. Worse, I know of no climate models which can successfully “postdict” climate over the previous few centuries.

    I’m big on conservation.

    I’m big on spending a lot more money on fundamental research.

    I’m big on cutting funding to the more political climatologists who have been abusing the scientific process to thwart publication of research that doesn’t fit “party line”.

    I’m not big on trying sell the idea that we need to go back to some “idyllic” late 18th century vision of “living in harmony with nature”. There were too many famines, too much pestilence, too many died of cold in winter and heat in summer. We live in a technological age and the technophobes has glommed onto “global warming” to sell an apocalyptic vision of the future.

    The fact that global warming has “paused” should give pause to the fanatics. But it hasn’t. They’ve doubled down on their fanaticism.

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