Which door will he pick?

Poliphilo must select a door, but he get’s to look behind them first.  He still chooses the “wrong” one…

Alas, I was raised on television…

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5 Responses to Which door will he pick?

  1. Ducky's here says:

    Say you pick a door and Monty opens one of the other two. It isn’t the big prize.
    Then Monty gives you the chance to swap for the other unopened door.
    Should you always take the offer to swap?

  2. Ducky's here says:

    Monty is more iconic than any old Renaissance portfolio.

  3. lichanos says:

    @Ducky:

    You’ve been watching waaay too much TV!

    Should you always swap? I know that this has been discussed ad nauseum by game theory practitioners, but I don’t recall the answer. If I get on a similar show, I’ll do the research first!

  4. Ducky's here says:

    When you pick a door initially your chances of winning the grand prize are 1 in 3.

    Now when Monte shows you a door your chances of winning the grand prize are still 1 in 3. What Monte, in his great beneficence, reveals is irrelevant.

    If you are then given the chance to switch, the unpicked door has now a 1 in 2 chance of hiding the grand prize.

    You always gain better odds by switching. I hope this helps you win a new washer/dryer at the next opportunity.

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