Statistical reports and observed reality do not always correspond, as my favorite comics artist, Richard Sala, illustrates with the image above. This gives an opening to right-wing critics of the statistician Nate Silver, who has consistently rated Obama the favorite in this election at his blog, 538.com. I find the attacks on him to be laughable: yes, he says he votes Democratic; yes, he has strong opinions on the importance of state as opposed to national polls; yes, he predicts the popular vote to be rather close but still rates Obama at more than 80% likely to win.
So what? As they say in the pundit world, “Here’s the thing…” In a few days the election will be over and we’ll see whose predictions and analysis were good, and whose were bad. Let’s just wait and see, heh?