The NYTimes had an OpEd piece today telling the sad tale of a tiny island republic, Nauru, that is doomed to obliteration, because of global warming, it would seem. Reading the entire article closely, however, the cause is not so clear-cut. The article is typical of many that appear in the news and advocacy press, so I am going through it point by point, my comments in bold. The plain text of the original piece can be read here.
I FORGIVE you if you have never heard of my country…
But make no mistake; we are a sovereign nation, with our own language, customs and history dating back 3,000 years….an indispensible cautionary tale about life in a place with hard ecological limits... Yes, cultures that take root in locations with such limits are fragile. Consider the vanished Easter Island societies.
Phosphate mining, first by foreign companies and later our own, cleared the lush tropical rainforest that once covered our island’s interior, scarring the land and leaving only a thin strip of coastline for us to live on… This is certainly the most serious ecological disturbance that was visited on the island. If not for that, the people could live elsewhere on the island, and the state of the coastal zone would not be so critical for them. Nothing to do with climate.
I am not looking for sympathy, but rather warning you what can happen when a country runs out of options. The world is headed down a similar path with the relentless burning of coal and oil, which is altering the planet’s climate… Not clear why the rest of the world is taking the same path by burning fossil fuels. Clearly, the industrial world has many things it can do better, but the problems of Nauru are not the problems of most of the world.
Climate change also threatens the very existence of many countries in the Pacific, where the sea level is projected to rise three feet or more by the end of the century. Already, Nauru’s coast, the only habitable area, is steadily eroding… The sea level rise that is claimed so far, if it is accurate, is quite small. Why would it be responsible for such damage to Nauru already? More likely, the destruction of the natural land cover has led to a drainage situation in which the land is steadily and rapidly eroded. The island is being washed away. As for the three-foot sea level rise, that is a worst-case scenario that should be taken with many grains of salt.
…and communities in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands have been forced to flee their homes to escape record tides. The low-lying nations of Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands may vanish entirely within our grandchildren’s lifetimes. They may vanish, and they may not… Hasn’t happened yet. People are running from flooding, not ‘record tides.’ One reason they flee is that most urban development has been taking place in flood-prone areas, despite the advice of engineers and geographers. In many of these places, the land is sinking, which makes things worse.
Similar climate stories are playing out on nearly every continent, where a steady onslaught of droughts, floods and heat waves, which are expected to become even more frequent and intense with climate change, have displaced millions of people and led to widespread food shortages. The usual litany, recited without any support. Droughts, floods, and heat waves are always with us. More people, more urbanization in the wrong place, better reporting – more disaster. “Expected to become more frequent…” is simply a crystal ball prediction, not a proven fact. Just pile on the horror stories…
The changes have already heightened competition over scarce resources, and could foreshadow life in a world where conflicts are increasingly driven by environmental catastrophes…. There is always competition for scarce resources: which ones are at issue here? Water? That’s been a concern for decades, rightly so, and has nothing to do with climate change. Food costs? The subsidies for ethanol have more to do with global food riots than does climate change since they resulted in a reduction in food grain exports.
The stakes are too high to implement these measures only after a disaster is already upon us... Unfortunately for Nauru, if the global warming predictions are correct, it’s already too late to help the island escape the effects of climate change.
Nauru has begun an intensive program to restore the damage done by mining, and my administration has put environmental sustainability at the center of our policymaking. Good show! For such a small and vulnerable environment, that’s what is needed, especially forest restoration.
I wish the people of Nauru all the best with their efforts.