There is an old saying; “Don’t believe everything you read.” Even in the newspaper of record, the New York Times? Well, when it comes to certain topics, at certain times in history, certainly. You can trust The Times, but as Saint Reaganzo said, “Trust, but verify.”
So, today, I present a little episode produced by my favorite fact-checking hobby, reports about the environment and the climate. I was prompted to this today by an article in the paper about the deaths in Saudi Arabia during the hajj. At least 1,300 have died to-date during the annual pilgrimage to the Kaaba, and the heat there is extreme. Of course, Wikipedia indicates that the mean daily high temperature in Mecca during June is 110 degrees F. Haven’t read anything in The Times about that being exceeded this year, only this:
At this year’s hajj, the Islamic pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia, at least 1,300 people died as temperatures surpassed 100 degrees Fahrenheit.
So, nothing unusual here, except perhaps the numbers who chose to visit this year. According to the paper, the Saudis require a permit to do the hajj, and those with this documentation are cared for with cooling rooms, available water, doctors, and so on. But, alas, many choose to come without the required permission, and, well…too bad for them. And climate change..?
But, the push to enhance the facts, or just make things up, continues:
Even as heat kills more people today than any other extreme weather event, there is still a dangerous cultural lag.
No doubt we don’t do enough to deal with the health risks from hot weather, but what about that statement (it’s hyperlinked in the article) that heat kills more people than any other weather extreme? Following the link takes you to another recent NYTimes article that treats the same topic, and containing this bit:
Extreme heat killed an estimated 489,000 people annually between 2000 and 2019, according to the World Meteorological Organization [WMO], making heat the deadliest of all extreme weather events.
Sounds like clear cut statistical proof that heat related deaths are the biggest weather problem, but following that hyperlink, to the original source, provides some surprises. It takes you to the WMO report, which includes this bit of text:
Between 2000 and 2019, estimated deaths due to heat were approximately 489 000 per year, with a particularly high burden in Asia (45%) and Europe (36%).64
There’s that 489,000 deaths per year figure again, sure enough, AND, a footnote to the source used by the WMO! Excellent! That footnote refers us to a scholarly article in The Lancet.
64 Zhao, Q.; Guo, Y.; Ye, T. et al. Global, Regional, and National Burden of Mortality Associated with Non-optimal Ambient Temperatures from 2000 to 2019: A Three-stage Modelling Study. Lancet Planet Health 2021, 5 (7), e415–e425.
It seems that Mr. Guo is a man busy researching the topic of weather-related mortality from his perch at Monash University in conjunction with other researchers around the world, and his findings in this study of weather related mortality from 2000 to 2019 are summarized in a webpage from Monash University: World’s largest study of global climate related mortality links 5 million deaths a year to abnormal temperatures July 2021. The following excerpt, with emphasis added by me, contradicts the assertion by the WMO.
The study, the first to definitively link above and below optimal temperatures (corresponding to minimum mortality temperatures) to annual increases in mortality, found 9.43 per cent of global deaths could be attributed to cold and hot temperatures. This equates to 74 excess deaths for every 100,000 people, with most deaths caused by cold exposure.
The study highlights geographic differences in the mortality rates due to extreme weather, and indicates that climate change, warming, will exacerbate the situation.
More than five million extra deaths a year can be attributed to abnormal hot and cold temperatures, according to a world first international study led by Monash University.
The study found deaths related to hot temperatures increased in all regions from 2000 to 2019, indicating that global warming due to climate change will make this mortality figure worse in the future.
It indicates that Sub-Saharan Africa has the greatest mortality rate from hot weather, no surprise given that region’s poverty and climate, but it also has the highest rate due to cold weather!
The data reveals geographic differences in the impact of non-optimal temperatures on mortality, with Eastern Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa having the highest heat and cold-related excess death rates.
And just how do hot weather and cold weather related deaths compare, numerically? The tables shown below give the breakdown, and I’ve computed the totals for heat and cold related deaths. The deaths due to cold are more than ten times those from heat! This is not a surprise to anyone familiar with weather related mortality statistics, and it is occasionally reported in the news.
ANNUAL DEATHS DUE TO COLD TEMPS BY REGION: 6,809,000
- Africa – 1.18 million
- Asia – 2.4 million
- Europe – 657,000
- South America – 116,000
- UK – 44,600
- US – 154,800
- China – 967,000
- India – 655,400
- Australia – 14,200
ANNUAL DEATHS DUE TO HIGH TEMPS BY REGION: 637,550
- Africa – 25,550
- Asia – 224,000
- Europe – 178,700
- South America – 25,250
- UK – 8000
- US – 18,750
- China – 71,300
- India – 83,700
- Australia – 2300
Oddly, it seems that the WMO and so, the NYTimes as well, underreport the magnitude of annual heat related deaths! Of course, this is just one study, and perhaps others will question its claims, but it is certainly out of bounds to say that it states that heat extremes are the biggest killer! 🧐
Journey to Perplexity 